Future Housing Bubbles - Should We Prevent Them?

The deflation of housing bubbles is very financially and emotionally painful, and if possible, housing bubbles should be avoided. The pain of the deflation of a housing bubble cannot be avoided by trying to keep the bubble inflated, or by trying to deflate it slowly. The only way to avoid these problems is to prevent the bubble from inflating in the first place through some form of intervention in the mortgage market. Intervention can take the form of a market-based intervention demanded by investors and ratings agencies, and it can also come about through direct government regulation.

The regulated free-market system in place at the turn of the millennium allowed the creation of the Great Housing Bubble. Some combination of market-based and regulatory reforms is necessary to prevent the same circumstances that created the bubble from creating another one; it is imperative to prevent the next bubble in order to avoid the problems from the bubble's deflation.

A substantive bailout plan to rescue homeowners would be fraught with problems and unintended consequences. In September of 2008, the banking system neared collapse due to the problems of the fallout, and a banking system bailout became necessary. This outcome argues more forcefully for an intervention to prevent future bubbles from occurring in the housing market.

A future bubble in the housing market must be prevented. The economic and personal problems resulting from the deflation of the Great Housing Bubble must not be inflicted on another generation. Just as those who endured the Great Depression struggled to understand what went wrong and prevent its reoccurrence, we must prevent another bubble in the housing market. There are both market-based alternatives and regulatory-based policies that could serve to prevent the next housing bubble. The market based solution proposed herein is to expand the use of the income approach to property appraisal to tether prices to fundamental values. The regulatory solution proposed herein is a multifaceted approach that limits lending to within certain standards. The policing mechanism is a shift to civil enforcement through allowing borrowers to obtain debt forgiveness for amounts lent outside of the approved parameters.

The Great Housing Bubble was an epic event impacting the lives of nearly every household in the United States and around the world. At first it was a giant house party fueled by excessive borrowing and spending by homeowners. The hangover was not pleasant. As of the time of this writing the full history of the fallout is not yet recorded. The decline in prices to this point has been breathtaking and unprecedented. When the full history is written, and the final impact of the bubble is measured, many will remember the Great Housing Bubble as one of the most important historical events of their lifetime.